Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 1.596544 1.671259 1.749322 1.837283 1.934030 2.037650 2.157632
2026-01-18 1.509733 1.609495 1.717506 1.844081 1.989601 2.153261 2.353598
2026-01-25 1.422635 1.535032 1.659663 1.809724 1.987793 2.195449 2.460848
2026-02-01 1.366443 1.489144 1.627937 1.798962 2.007610 2.259026 2.593615
2026-02-08 1.318022 1.448035 1.597521 1.785318 2.019922 2.310856 2.712527
2026-02-15 1.275382 1.410712 1.568470 1.769976 2.026975 2.353990 2.821053
2026-02-22 1.248107 1.389773 1.557189 1.774627 2.057892 2.428174 2.976766
2026-03-01 1.203799 1.346141 1.515836 1.738632 2.032960 2.424733 3.020016
2026-03-08 1.169040 1.312700 1.485442 1.714679 2.021783 2.438153 3.087647
2026-03-15 1.141461 1.286977 1.463445 1.700145 2.021767 2.466147 3.178745
2026-03-22 1.133176 1.284683 1.470541 1.723516 2.074072 2.571573 3.402116
2026-03-29 1.129426 1.287695 1.484170 1.755735 2.140020 2.701566 3.682726
2026-04-05 1.109268 1.269805 1.470799 1.751710 2.155382 2.758330 3.849739
2026-04-12 1.093169 1.256509 1.462796 1.754429 2.180307 2.831470 4.056901
2026-04-19 1.064051 1.225579 1.430483 1.721866 2.150940 2.815097 4.091452
2026-04-26 1.045229 1.207465 1.414572 1.711587 2.154275 2.851986 4.235699
2026-05-03 1.026561 1.189024 1.397594 1.698988 2.153158 2.880960 4.367906
2026-05-10 1.008321 1.170665 1.380145 1.684950 2.148897 2.903922 4.490707
2026-05-17 0.997781 1.162107 1.375602 1.689160 2.173033 2.977524 4.737925
2026-05-24 0.974343 1.135952 1.346375 1.656345 2.136804 2.941216 4.725306
2026-05-31 0.955745 1.115882 1.325041 1.634481 2.117206 2.933690 4.781012
2026-06-07 0.940933 1.100562 1.309871 1.621204 2.110813 2.949715 4.897296
2026-06-14 0.938785 1.102083 1.317920 1.642547 2.161721 3.075997 5.322005